July Basketball Predictions

I thought something that might be interesting (at least to me) was to take a basketball division, summarize what the teams in it have done, and say where I think they will rank next year. Let's start with the East Coast...

These are listed in the order they finished last year

1. Boston Celtics
What They've Done: They drafted well - getting high school prodigy Gerald Green and second round steal of Ryan Gomes. Oh, and they agreed to terms with Brian "The Scab"a Scalabrine
Questions: Will they resign Payton and Walker? Are they going to trade Pierce?
Where They'll Rank: It seems Ainge has some tricky decisions to make. He has managed the impossible in his first 2 years, piling up young talent, while still having enough veterans to make the play-offs. Do they go all young or bring back the veterans for another play-off push? It seems, to me, silly to trade a solid all-star in Pierce who's still young when a lot of their guys still have years until they can be effective. But at the same time, Al Jefferson seems to be the real deal, so I'm not sure if they really want Antoine Walker, even if it for cheap. For now I'll assume they don't resign Payton or Walker, but keep Pierce. I'll drop them to 4th in a division that should have 3 teams (NY, PHIL, and BOS) that are neck and neck and neck.

2. Philadelphia 76ers
What They've Done: Just trying to hold onto free agents Korver, Willy G, and Dalembert
Questions: Will they resign Dalembert? Will Webber return to all-star form? How will Mo Cheeks do?
Where They'll Rank: They need another star to become contenders again. Webber has risen up from the ashes before (see early Wizards and Sacramento years), but he just seems like a shell of the player he once was. And I don't think Dalembert is ready yet for star status. Maybe just not having a coach they all hate will improve morale, but it seems more likley that they will have about the same record as last year. I'll keep them at second.

3. New Jersey Nets
What They've Done: Drafted shooter Antoine Wright and a tall Serbian. Signing of Abdur-Rahim appears imminent.
Questions: Will they sign Kenyon Dooling? Will Rahim be a good fit in their running offence?
Where They'll Rank: I think they'll will easily win their division. Rahim is a great player (still young as well) and a steal for the money they will pay. The only concern is injuries, in that Jefferson and Rahim missed about 1/2 of last season, Carter often gets hurt, and Kidd is coming off last season's serious knee surgury. Still, as long as 3 of those 4 can stay healthy (with one having to be Kidd), I see them coming in first in this division.

4. New York Knicks
What They've Done: Drafted Channing Fry and Nate Robinson. Traded Thomas for Quentin. Signed Jerome James.
Questions: Will Larry Brown coach them?
Where They'll Rank: If Brown agrees to coach them, in this division I push them up to 2nd and overall I'd guarantee them a play-off spot. For now I'll move them up to 3rd in their division. As much as Thomas has made terrible moves, he still has constructed a deep talented roster. I especially think they could excel in a Sun's run and gun style. It wouldn't surprise me if even without Brown they are able to be a decent team.

5. Toronto Raptors
What They've Done: Drafted the enigmatic (and derided pick of the draft) Villanueva and Joey Graham.
Questions: Will they cut Jalen Rose? Will Villanueva prove his critics wrong? Will Sam Mitchell beat someone up???
Where They'll Rank: It's not looking good in Toronto. Thanks to Jalen Rose's max deal, this bad team has little room to sign people. A once solid franchise last year had a bad draft (Araujo), made a terrible trade (Carter when his stock could not be any lower), and a dumb non-trade (letting a wanted Marshall leave for nothing). Bosh is skilled, but does not appear to be a transcendent superstar. It looks like he'll get to wallow around with a bad team learning bad losing habits. I see them coming in dead last in their division.