Shooting Guard Bonanza
Oddly, whereas being 7 feet tall is the usual suspect in getting teams to shell out millions during free agency, this year being a shooting guard seems to be in vogue. The following signings should happen when the free agent moratorium is lifted: Ray Allen to the Sonics (5 years - 80 million), Michael Redd to the Bucks (6 years - 90 million), Larry Hughes to the Cavs (5 years - 70 million), Bobby Simmons to the Bucks (5 years - 47 million), and Joe Johnson possibly to the Hawks (5 years - 70 million: but this can be matched by Phoenix). Meanwhile, big men Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, Samuel Dalembert, Jerome James, Stromile Swift, and The Big Z have agreed to no offers.
Although I'm happy to see skilled player getting more love than 7-footers with potential, I predict many of these signings will be rued about later. Since, due to salary caps, a team winning free agency is more complicated than getting the players they want. The following are 4 ways of scoring a signing then my prediction of where the following shooting guard pick-ups will rank.
The Coup - A player signs a medium contract and then breaks out. Fairly rare. Examples: Chauncey Billups ( paid about 6 million a year), Ben Wallace (6 million a year), and Manu Ginobli (just got a raise to 9 million a year. Think if he had been free agent this summer)?
A lot, but worth it - A great player gets paid the max. Examples: Nowitzki, Duncan, Iverson, McGrady.
Slightly Rueful - This happens a lot. Either through competition or the powers of potential, a good player gets paid as a superstar. In some situations, teams sucking it up and paying more is fine for team chemistry (think Kenyon Martin- he's only been an all-star once, so it's hard to justify giving him max money. But the Nets fell apart without his inside presence). Sometimes, the pay checks continue to grow while production drops and the last few years of the contract are an albatross (think Eddie Jones and Michael Finley). Often, these players fill up future cap space and lose trade value because other teams don't want their contracts (think Antawn Jamison, Baron Davis (who would be worth the max if he could stay healthy), and Steve Francis).
Totally ruing - Oops. These are salary cap bombs. These can be the result of unforeseen injuries (Grant Hill), overrated talent (Shawn Kemp, Jalen Rose, Antonio Davis), or a combination of both (Allan Houston was the second highest paid player in the league last year at 19 million). These players kill your cap and are virtually untradable, except for each other.
Of the recent signings...
A lot, but worth it - I think Ray Allen is the only shooting guard who deserved max money. He can carry a team, has been good for many years, and played well in the playoffs. The only knock on him is age, and so it was good to see that they signed him for 5 years instead of the max length 6 years. I would also put Bobby Simmons here since his contract is much more reasonable than the other wing players.
Slightly Rueful - I think Joe Johnson, Michael Redd, and Larry Hughes have all been overpaid. Both Joe Johnson and Larry Hughes have been inconsistent throughout their careers and only last year played well (although not good enough to go to the all star game). And although Redd has been an All Star and has sustained a high level of play for 2 years, he seems limited as a good shooter. It is doubtful he'll ever be a superstar. Maybe these players will end up being worth being overpaid for the sake of creating a good team. Or maybe they will be on the trading block in 3 years as these teams try to find cap space. Time will tell....
Although I'm happy to see skilled player getting more love than 7-footers with potential, I predict many of these signings will be rued about later. Since, due to salary caps, a team winning free agency is more complicated than getting the players they want. The following are 4 ways of scoring a signing then my prediction of where the following shooting guard pick-ups will rank.
The Coup - A player signs a medium contract and then breaks out. Fairly rare. Examples: Chauncey Billups ( paid about 6 million a year), Ben Wallace (6 million a year), and Manu Ginobli (just got a raise to 9 million a year. Think if he had been free agent this summer)?
A lot, but worth it - A great player gets paid the max. Examples: Nowitzki, Duncan, Iverson, McGrady.
Slightly Rueful - This happens a lot. Either through competition or the powers of potential, a good player gets paid as a superstar. In some situations, teams sucking it up and paying more is fine for team chemistry (think Kenyon Martin- he's only been an all-star once, so it's hard to justify giving him max money. But the Nets fell apart without his inside presence). Sometimes, the pay checks continue to grow while production drops and the last few years of the contract are an albatross (think Eddie Jones and Michael Finley). Often, these players fill up future cap space and lose trade value because other teams don't want their contracts (think Antawn Jamison, Baron Davis (who would be worth the max if he could stay healthy), and Steve Francis).
Totally ruing - Oops. These are salary cap bombs. These can be the result of unforeseen injuries (Grant Hill), overrated talent (Shawn Kemp, Jalen Rose, Antonio Davis), or a combination of both (Allan Houston was the second highest paid player in the league last year at 19 million). These players kill your cap and are virtually untradable, except for each other.
Of the recent signings...
A lot, but worth it - I think Ray Allen is the only shooting guard who deserved max money. He can carry a team, has been good for many years, and played well in the playoffs. The only knock on him is age, and so it was good to see that they signed him for 5 years instead of the max length 6 years. I would also put Bobby Simmons here since his contract is much more reasonable than the other wing players.
Slightly Rueful - I think Joe Johnson, Michael Redd, and Larry Hughes have all been overpaid. Both Joe Johnson and Larry Hughes have been inconsistent throughout their careers and only last year played well (although not good enough to go to the all star game). And although Redd has been an All Star and has sustained a high level of play for 2 years, he seems limited as a good shooter. It is doubtful he'll ever be a superstar. Maybe these players will end up being worth being overpaid for the sake of creating a good team. Or maybe they will be on the trading block in 3 years as these teams try to find cap space. Time will tell....
posted by chuckdaddy2000 at 10:34 am
1 Comments:
Good point on Shawn Kemp. You can't criticize Cleveland for failing to predict he'd become addicted to booze, cocaine, and cheeseburgers. And who could have guessed all the damage to his back the horsey rides for his 12 illegitimate kids would cause!
Still, Seattle knew to trade him instead of paying him 100 million.
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